Work package 15: Consumption development until 2030 by household type and scenarios

In work package 15, the Institute of Economic Structures Research (GWS) will provide a macroeconomic framework for the micro-based analyses of related work packages. The analysis of income generation and use within the household sectors of the System of National Accounts (SNA) from 1991 up to the present is differentiated by types of income, consumer uses and socio-economic household types. Moreover, it provides information about the macroeconomic effects of consumer behaviour and changes in consumption patterns. The base scenario of the overall economic development introduced in work package 1 projects detailed consumption patterns until 2030. Using the model ensemble of the GWS, two contrasting alternative scenarios will be modelled, introducing two new household types:

  • The scenario “sustainable consumption” assumes that an increasing proportion of households define themselves by their sustainable lifestyle based on their purchasing power and consciously decides in favour of goods and services which can satisfy this requirement.
  • The scenario “poverty consumption”, on the other hand, assumes a growing number of poor households, whose consumption patterns are characterised by budget constraints especially in services, limited choices and low-price oriented consumer decisions.

For the modelling it is assumed that between 2010 and 2030 more and more households will change from the household types determined in the baseline projection into one of the new household types. Also taken into consideration are developments of price structures, in particular on the supply side. The scenarios could show which macroeconomic effects the increase in each of the two alternative patterns of consumption would have, how they would affect the consumption opportunities of other household types and what effect they would have on Germany’s most important trade partners. The consumption pattern for the two modelled household types must be defined during the project in collaboration with the other work packages of Division 5; for the first scenario, results of the initiative "From Knowledge to Action - New Paths towards Sustainable Consumption" as part of the BMBF-funded socio-ecological research (SÖF) will be used.

Work package 15: Consumption development until 2030 by household type and scenarios

In work package 15, the Institute of Economic Structures Research (GWS) will provide a macroeconomic framework for the micro-based analyses of related work packages. The analysis of income generation and use within the household sectors of the System of National Accounts (SNA) from 1991 up to the present is differentiated by types of income, consumer uses and socio-economic household types. Moreover, it provides information about the macroeconomic effects of consumer behaviour and changes in consumption patterns. The base scenario of the overall economic development introduced in work package 1 projects detailed consumption patterns until 2030. Using the model ensemble of the GWS, two contrasting alternative scenarios will be modelled, introducing two new household types:

  • The scenario “sustainable consumption” assumes that an increasing proportion of households define themselves by their sustainable lifestyle based on their purchasing power and consciously decides in favour of goods and services which can satisfy this requirement.
  • The scenario “poverty consumption”, on the other hand, assumes a growing number of poor households, whose consumption patterns are characterised by budget constraints especially in services, limited choices and low-price oriented consumer decisions.

For the modelling it is assumed that between 2010 and 2030 more and more households will change from the household types determined in the baseline projection into one of the new household types. Also taken into consideration are developments of price structures, in particular on the supply side. The scenarios could show which macroeconomic effects the increase in each of the two alternative patterns of consumption would have, how they would affect the consumption opportunities of other household types and what effect they would have on Germany’s most important trade partners. The consumption pattern for the two modelled household types must be defined during the project in collaboration with the other work packages of Division 5; for the first scenario, results of the initiative "From Knowledge to Action - New Paths towards Sustainable Consumption" as part of the BMBF-funded socio-ecological research (SÖF) will be used.

Researchers

Dr. Thomas Drosdowski (GWS), Anke Mönnig (GWS), Britta Stöver (GWS), Ines Thobe (GWS) and Dr. Marc Ingo Wolter (GWS)

 
Ergebnisse
Bieritz, Loreto/Stöver, Britta (2016): Auswirkungen von Mieterhöhungen auf die Konsumstruktur verschiedener Haushaltstypen. PDF
Drosdowski, Thomas/ Stöver, Britta/ Ritter, Tobias (2016): Consumption of the poor in Germany: projecting the development until 2030. PDF
Stöver, Britta (2014): Socioeconomic consumption modelling in an input-output model. Vortrag im Rahmen der International Input-Output Conference (IIOA) am 14.-18.07.2014 in Lissabon. PDF
Poster
Poster 17: Einkommen, Konsum und Sparen: Haushaltstypen, Projektion und Szenarien. PDF