Work package 1: Macroeconomic development until 2030 and scenarios

The Institute of Economic Structures Research (GWS) in Osnabrueck and the Fraunhofer Institute for Applied Information Technology (FIT) in Sankt Augustin are working on the WP 1. It analyses Germany´s macroeconomic development within the global market as well as the development of the population and the labour market as differentiated by socio-demographic groups of households and other criteria. The development of macroeconomic indicators, starting in 1991, will be shown in the descriptive part. These data are the foundation of the modelling of a base scenario of the development until 2030. The complex, empirically-based structural model of the GWS, already used in soeb 2, describes macroeconomic resources for the welfare production and individual opportunities for all other WPs in the report. At the same time, as a consistent frame of reference, it allows sensitivity analyses (with alternative scenarios) of aggregated macroeconomic effects of changed societal patterns of participation. These scenarios will be developed in cooperation with other WPs, whose results can be used as model parameters. Thus, a link between micro- and macro-analyses can be established.

Indicators from the chapter “Participatory Capitalism” in soeb 2 will be updated and an analysis of regional disparities will be carried out. The modelling of the supply and demand relations in the labour market will be further differentiated by occupation and qualification, allowing more precise labour participation patterns (supply side) and recruitment strategies (demand side). A new focus lies on sustainability indicators: for established indicator systems such as the German Strategy for Sustainable Development, future values will be calculated as model results. At the same time, the aim is to supplement these indicators with adequate socioeconomic sustainability indicators. In addition, the research is intended to detect regional differences in demographic and economic-structural development on different territorial levels.

Researchers

Dr. Thomas Drosdowski (GWS), Michael Kalinowski (FIT), Anke Mönnig (GWS), Britta Stöver (GWS), Ines Thobe (GWS), Philip Ulrich (GWS) and Dr. Marc Ingo Wolter (GWS)

 
Poster
Poster Kapitel 1: Das Potenzial für Teilhabe – Spielräume und Risiken PDF